The No-Lay Spectrum and Commission Increase

The No-Lay Spectrum and Commission Increase

Should You Switch to No-Lay Betting After Betfair’s Commission Increase?

With Betfair increasing commission rates for Australian and New Zealand customers, many matched bettors are asking: Is it time to ditch laying bets altogether?

The no-lay approach has always been a growing trend, but it’s not for everyone. While it removes Betfair commission from the equation, it comes with a trade-off, variance. The further you go down the no-lay path, the wilder those swings become.

Let’s break it down.

The No-Lay Spectrum: How Far Do You Go?

There isn’t just one way to apply a no-lay strategy. Some bettors take a cautious approach, while others fully embrace the variance. Here’s how it scales:

1️. No-Lay Promotions (Lowest Variance)

Best place for an introduction to no-lay, this is the first stage, you are not laying the promotions themselves, but are still laying your mugs bets and bonus conversions to control your variance.
The value of what we do as matched bettors, is in the promotion. This maximises your gains when placing these bets by avoiding EV loss to Betfair commission.
Instead of profiting when converting bonus bets, these are now what we call ‘saves’ where the save is that instead of losing your entire stake, you lose the difference in retention.

🔹 Why it works: The value is in the promotion.

2️. No-Lay Mug Bets (Moderate Variance)

Placing “mug bets” (non-bonus bets) without laying them off, whilst also not laying your promotions, variance is controlled here by still laying your bonus conversions.
Can help with account health but introduces more risk.
A losing streak can and will occur, but bankroll swings are manageable with the right mindset.

🔹 Why it works: Over time, you should win close to 50% of bets if picking fair and even odds, but short term variance is unavoidable, especially as the odds increase.

3. No-Lay Bonus Bets (High Variance)

Using Bonus bets without hedging them is the final step, at this stage you are not laying promotions, mugs or bonus bets and are taking the full variance with no mitigation.
You win big or win nothing, there is no in between.
Most profitable long-term but can lead to massive downswings, these can result in placing thousands in bets and losing every single one, you need to be mentally ready for this level.

🔹 Why it works: The expected value of a bonus bet is higher without commission, but long losing streaks are inevitable.

Risk vs. Return: Understanding the Trade-Offs

To better visualize the impact of no-lay betting, imagine a scale:

Low Variance (Steady Profits): Laying all bets traditionally, absorbing Betfair commission.
Moderate Variance (Bigger Ups & Downs): No-lay promotions and selective underlaying.
High Variance (Wild Swings): No-lay mugs, promotions, and bonus bets, risking large downswings.

Laying your bets is hedging against variance, therefore the less you lay, the higher your variance will be in the long term.A higher return potential comes with higher risk. Understanding where you fall on this scale will help you decide what’s best for your risk tolerance.

Pros & Cons of the No-Lay Approach

✅ Pros:

Saves time (no need to lay bets).
Maximizes long term expected value.
No risk of losing both the lay and the back bet due to mistakes.
Allows access to markets that are difficult to lay or have no Betfair equivalent.

❌ Cons:

Higher variance, potential for massive downswings.
Requires a much bigger bankroll.
Not suitable for those prone to chasing losses.

Underlaying: A Middle Ground?

Underlaying is an approach that reduces variance without completely sacrificing expected value.

Rather than removing the lay bet entirely, underlaying means laying a smaller amount than usual. This minimizes the downside while still benefiting from reduced Betfair commission costs. For example:

Laying only a portion of the back bet (eg. 50% or a flat stake) lowers risk while increasing expected value.
This can be useful for those who want to transition into no-lay betting gradually.

While this method won’t eliminate variance, it provides a balanced approach for those cautious about bankroll swings.

Is No-Lay Right for You?

If you have the bankroll, patience, and discipline to handle variance, no-lay betting could be an option. But if you prefer steady, predictable profits, sticking with traditional matched betting, even with higher commission, might be the better choice.

Ultimately, the decision comes down to your risk tolerance. There’s no “one size fits all” approach, but understanding the trade offs will help you make an informed choice.