Every day, Neds offer a selection of promotions in their ‘Toolbox’. The promotion which has the highest expected value is their ‘BackUp’.

The BackUp allows you to select a second horse in addition to the one you are betting on. If that backup horse wins, and your horse finishes 2nd, Neds will refund your stake up to a maximum of $500.

With some careful race selection (eg a race with only two clear favourites) and the help of our calculator, you can achieve expected returns of 20%, or more, of your stake

The top section of the BackUp calculator works just like a standard matched betting calculator. It calculates the appropriate lay stake based on your back and lay odds.

It is in the bottom section that we find the interesting info…

Here we enter the lay odds of the backup horse. However, it should be noted that we do not place any bets on this horse. The lay odds are only used to calculate the EV. As you can see, with the right race selection the EV can be huge.

The expected value is not guaranteed though, and this promo can’t be hedged. Therefore we can also see our two possible outcomes – a qualifying loss or a huge profit.

If you are not comfortable with the potential qualifying loss you should lower your stakes or wait until you have a larger bankroll.

By sticking to bets with high EV, we can ensure that we maximise our long-term profits.