If you are risk-averse, you can use this calculator to lock-in a profit on races that have a ‘refund if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd’ promo. You do that by laying the place market in addition to the win market.
Note that this is not our preferred method for horse racing. We recommend checking out the horse racing course and using Horsepower instead. That method is simpler to implement and will provide higher profits in the long-run, but it does carry some risk. This lock-in calculator removes that risk but reduces your profits and takes more time.
Using the Calc
In the top section of the calculator you should enter your back stake and the back & lay odds for the horse you are betting on. Ideally you want a horse that has low odds and is a close match between the bookmaker and Betfair. You can use HorsePower to help identify horses that meet this criteria.
You should also enter the commission for the race, and the retention rate that you expect to extract from any bonuses. Once all of this information is added the calculator will work out the lay stake that you should use.
It should be noted that this lay stake is not the same as the one you would get on HorsePower or in a normal back/lay calculator.
In the next section you should enter the horse’s lay odds from the ‘Place’ market at Betfair:
Lay Options
You can also choose from one of four lay options:
S
Standard – This gives equal profit no matter what happens.
U
Underlay – This gives a higher profit if the horse finishes in the top 3, but zero profit if it doesn’t.
O
Overlay – This gives a higher profit if the horse finishes outside the top 3, but zero if it doesn’t.
N
No Lay – This gives a high profit if the horse finishes in the top 3, but a loss if it doesn’t.
Your lay stake for the place market will vary depending on the option you choose.
We can see the potential outcomes in the bottom section:
Video Explainer
Watch the video below for a full walkthrough of the 2nd/3rd lock-in calculator.
