Value Betting
What is Value Betting?
Value betting (or Positive EV betting) is a way to give yourself a mathematical edge over online bookmakers in order to make a profit. Unlike Matched Betting, value betting does not involve the use of promotions or bonus bets. This means that you can use value betting as a way to continue profiting from bookie accounts after they have been promo-banned.
At its core, value betting involves identifying situations where the probability of an event occurring is greater than what the bookmaker’s odds suggest. In other words, it’s about finding bets where the potential payout is higher than the actual risk involved, allowing bettors to profit over time. This type of bet is said to have a positive expected value (+EV).
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Understanding Value Betting
To understand value betting, it’s crucial to know how bookmakers set their odds. Bookmakers calculate odds based on their assessment of the probability of an event happening, then adjust these odds to include a margin (often called the “overround” or “vig”) to ensure their profitability. This margin means the odds offered by bookmakers typically imply a probability greater than 100%, giving them an edge.
However, bookmakers do not always get their odds exactly right. Factors such as market pressure, incomplete information, or human error can lead to odds that either underestimate or overestimate the likelihood of an outcome. When a bookmaker offers odds that imply a lower probability than the actual chance of an event happening, a value betting opportunity arises.
For example, if a bookmaker offers odds of $3.00 for a team to win a match, they imply a 33.3% chance of that outcome (calculated as 1/3.00). If you assess that the team has a 40% chance of winning, then you’ve identified a +EV bet because the true probability suggests that the odds should be $2.50 (1/0.40). By placing a bet at the $3.00 odds, you are essentially wagering on an event that is more likely to occur than the bookmaker’s odds suggest.
Value Betting
A Reliable Approach to Finding Value
While using statistics and studying form are common methods for identifying value, they are unreliable for most punters. Many overestimate their ability to accurately assess true probabilities, and some will simply use stats as a way to justify placing the bets they want to place anyway. A more reliable way to calculate true probability is through a “wisdom of the crowd” approach. This involves leveraging the collective input of a large number of people, which can provide a more accurate picture of an event’s likelihood.
One of the best tools for this approach is a betting exchange like Betfair. On a betting exchange, the odds are determined by the market, which can include thousands of individual bettors. These odds reflect the collective judgment of a diverse group of people, often leading to a more accurate estimation of true probability than any individual could make.
Another method is to examine the odds offered by multiple bookmakers. Bookmakers employ teams of professional odds compilers who use advanced techniques to calculate probabilities. By removing the margin from the bookie odds we can determine what these experts think the true odds should be. We can then go one step further and average the “true odds” across several bookmakers in order to get an even more accurate picture of an event’s true probability. This average reflects a synthesis of various expert analyses, making it a robust guide to finding value bets, which is why we use this approach in our value betting tools.
Value Betting
Value Betting in Australia
In Australia, value betting has become increasingly popular due to the competitive nature of the betting market. With numerous bookmakers vying for customers, there are often discrepancies in the odds they offer, creating opportunities for savvy punters to find value. The availability of betting exchanges like Betfair, and the value betting tools offered by Bonusbank, also make it easier for Australians to apply a “wisdom of the crowd” in order to find bets with a positive expected value.
However, it’s important to remember that while value betting can be profitable, it is not without risks. Even when you identify a +EV bet, there’s no guarantee that it will win. Short-term losing runs are part of the process with this strategy. It is only in the longer-term that you can be confident of realising the expected value of your bets. Therefore, value betting should be approached with caution and as part of a well-rounded betting strategy.
In conclusion, value betting is a powerful tool for Australian punters looking to gain an edge over bookmakers. By using a “wisdom of the crowd” approach, whether through betting exchanges or by averaging bookmaker odds, bettors can more accurately determine the true probability of an event and increase their chances of long-term success. However, as with all betting strategies, discipline, research, and careful bankroll management are key to making the most of value betting.