Make the most of your SGMs
SGM refund promos offer a huge amount of value, but if you want to maximise your EV you need to be smart with your leg selection. Combining legs where a bookie is offering generous odds compared to the rest of the market will enhance your edge, and the SGM Finder makes it easy.
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One SGM promo, taken apart
Here is how you would build a typical bonus back SGM with the finder. The offer and prices are an example.
The offer: place a 3-leg SGM with every leg at $1.10 or longer. If one leg fails, get your stake back as a bonus bet, up to $50.
Your 3-leg SGM
Stake $50.00
Two short legs, one around $2.00
The short legs win most of the time, so when the multi loses it is usually by one leg. That is exactly when the bonus back pays out.
Every leg priced well
Two-way markets are checked against their fair price and one-way markets against the average across bookmakers. Each leg here beats its benchmark, so you know it is a good bet.
No extra legs
Every leg past the minimum is another way to lose by two, which is when the promo pays nothing back.
Up to 40%
expected value on well-built SGM promos
Example prices. Fair mode compares a two-way market to its fair price. Market mode compares a one-way market to the average price across bookmakers. Expected value is your average result over many bets, including conversion of bonus bets.
How it works
Three steps from opening the finder to a multi on your bet slip.
Step 1
Pick a game
Upcoming games run down the left, soonest first. Events with available promos are highlighted. Choose your sports and leagues along the top, with AFL, NRL, NFL, NBA, MLB, and the major soccer leagues all in one place.
Step 2
Pick your legs
Selections fall into two categories, Fair and Market. Fair markets can be de-vigged in order to calculate the Fair odds and the EV of each bet. When a market can’t be de-vigged we compare the prices against the market average and the best available odds instead.
You can filter for specific markets, or set minimum and maximum odds, so that you only see the legs that suit you.
Step 3
Build and copy
Add your legs to the builder and the combined price appears straight away. Copy the finished multi and paste it into your bet tracker in one go.
Two ways it finds value
Different markets need different tests, so the SGM Finder uses the right one for each leg.
Fair line, for two-way markets
Markets like Over/Under have two sides. The finder removes each bookie’s margin to see what they consider the fair odds to be, then averages across all available bookies to give our Fair odds. Any bookie paying more than that is +EV.
Typical market
Margin removed
One bookie pays more on Over
Outliers, for one-way markets
Markets like Anytime Tryscorer have no opposite side to compare. Here the finder looks for a bookie paying well above everyone else.
Anytime Tryscorer, same player
Bookie E is paying 14% more than the market average.
Questions people ask
If bookies love SGM promos, how can they be profitable?
Most punters use SGM promos to chase big wins, stacking -EV legs on top of -EV legs. This is hugely profitable for the bookies, which is why they run so many SGM promos. For us, the value comes from those promos. By using the minimum possible number of legs, and choosing legs that are +EV (or close to it) we can extract an average of 20-40% of the bonus value on every bet.
Will every SGM win?
No. Most multis lose, including well-chosen ones. Expected value is your average result over many bets, so the profit comes from placing +EV bets week after week and letting the results even out in your favour.
Why does the price change when I add legs to a bet slip?
Legs from the same game are correlated, and bookies adjust the odds to reflect this. Some markets have more correlation than others, and it can be both positive and negative. For example, ‘Player X To Score’ and ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ are highly positively correlated, the first one makes the second one more likely. ‘Player X To Score’ and ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ are highly negatively correlated. ‘Player X To Score’ and ‘Player Y To Be Yellow Carded’ are weakly correlated.
Which sports and bookmakers are covered?
The SGM Finder covers all the major Australian bookmakers that run SGM promos, across all major Australian and international sporting leagues. The market coverage page has the full list.
How long does each promo take?
Finding the best legs takes seconds. Placing the bet, and converting any bonus bet you get back, takes a few minutes.
Which plan includes the SGM Finder?
The SGM Finder is part of Pro, which includes every Bonusbank tool. You can also start on the free plan to learn how matched betting works, then upgrade when you are ready.
Make your next SGM promo count
Pro includes the SGM Finder and every other Bonusbank tool, for $149 a month.
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