Value betting: back the prices bookies get wrong
Value betting, also called +EV betting, means backing odds that are higher than the true chance of winning. Not every bet wins, but over time the maths works in your favour. No promos needed, so there are value bets every day.
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How value betting works
Bookies adjust their odds constantly for team news, market moves and betting volume, but they don’t always get it right. When one is slow to react, its price sits out of line with the rest of the market. That’s the value.
- Work out the fair oddsRemove the bookie margin from the market and average the prices to estimate the true chance of each outcome.
- Find a bookie paying moreAny bookie offering higher odds than the fair price is a value bet.
- Size the bet sensiblyKeep each stake small compared with your bankroll, so normal losing runs never put you out of the game.
- Repeat, many timesEach bet is a coin toss in your favour. The edge shows up over hundreds of bets, not one.
A worked example with real numbers
A team has a 50% chance of winning, so its fair odds are 2.00. One bookie is paying 2.10. You back it for $50.
One bet
| Team wins (50% of the time): $50 at 2.10 | +$55.00 |
| Team loses (50% of the time) | −$50.00 |
| Average result per bet, a 5% edge | +$2.50 |
100 bets like it
| Total staked | $5,000 |
| Average result | +$250 |
| Normal range | −$275 to +$775 |
Example odds only. This isn’t locked in: some runs of 100 bets finish behind, and losing streaks are a normal part of value betting. The more bets you place, the closer your results move towards the average.
Value bet calculator
Enter the bookie odds, the fair odds and your stake. The calculator shows your edge, the average profit and the range of results to expect.
Not sure of the fair odds? The true odds calculator → removes the bookie margin for you.
Finding value bets by hand is the hard part
Working out fair odds means comparing prices from many bookies, including overseas ones, and value disappears quickly once bookies correct their prices.
🔒 Members see live value bets
The Value Betting Software works out fair odds across bookies all day and lists every bet priced above them, with the edge shown.
See the Value Betting SoftwareYour value betting toolkit
Value Betting Software
Calculates fair odds using prices from Australian and overseas bookies, and shows every bet with an edge as it appears.
About Value Betting Software →BetHero Discord bot
Posts +EV bets and arbitrage opportunities across a range of bookies in Discord, so you can act on them wherever you are.
About the Discord →EV and Kelly calculators
Check the value of any bet and work out a sensible stake for your bankroll before you place it.
Open the Kelly calculator →Questions people ask
What is value betting?
Value betting, or +EV betting, means backing odds that are higher than the true chance of an outcome. If a team’s fair odds are 2.00 and a bookie offers 2.10, that bet is worth more than it costs, so backing bets like it over and over makes a profit.
How is it different from matched betting?
Matched betting uses bookie promos and locks in a profit on each offer. Value betting doesn’t need promos, so it works on accounts that no longer receive them, but the profit only shows up over many bets rather than on each one.
Can I lose money value betting?
Yes, in the short term. Losing streaks are normal, even with a real edge. Keeping each stake small compared with your bankroll lets you ride out the swings until the long-run average comes through.
Will bookies limit my account?
Bookies are quick to limit accounts that win consistently. Spreading your bets across bookies and mixing in normal bets helps your accounts last longer.
Which Bonusbank plan do I need?
The Value Betting Software and the BetHero Discord bot are part of Pro. The EV, Kelly and true odds calculators are free for everyone.
Put the maths on your side
Start with the free course to learn the basics, then use the Value Betting Software to find bets priced above their true odds, every day.
Free beginners course · No credit card needed · Takes 2 minutes